The divisional spherical of the playoffs is lastly right here. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Cleveland Browns (!) to Arrowhead Stadium at the moment, as they give the impression of being to defend their crown and advance to the AFC title recreation for the third consecutive season. After profitable their first playoff recreation in 26 years the Browns are enjoying with home cash, however that does not imply they’re taking this one calmly.
Let’s break down the matchup.
How one can watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 17 | Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas Metropolis, Missouri)
TV: CBS | Stream: CBS All Access
Observe: CBS Sports App
When the Browns have the ball
Except they get right into a recreation like they did final week in opposition to the Steelers, the Browns are literally a pass-heavier crew than you would possibly assume they’re. Since Week 12 (a recreation that adopted a three-game stretch the place all of their video games have been performed in inclement climate), the Browns have a 59 % early-down go fee in impartial conditions, in response to Sharp Soccer Stats. That is ninth within the league, and fairly a bit larger than the 54 % league common throughout that span.
That stretch has coincided with some of the efficient stretches of play of Baker Mayfield’s profession. Together with final week’s recreation in opposition to the Steelers, Mayfield is 165 of 255 (64.7 %) for 1,976 yards (7.75 per try), 14 touchdowns, and only one interception. The Browns’ heavy utilization of play motion and bootleg ideas play to Mayfield’s strengths, permitting him simplified reads and clearer throwing lanes when he will get onto the perimeter. He is taken full benefit, and the Browns’ offense has accordingly skilled a great deal of success.
The Kansas Metropolis protection did not face all that a lot bootleg motion this season, with groups throwing solely 51 such passes, per Professional Soccer Focus and Tru Media. They allowed 33 completions for 281 yards, 5 touchdowns, one interception, and a 103.5 passer ranking on these performs. Mayfield threw 68 bootleg passes (round 33 % greater than the quantity the Chiefs confronted on protection), finishing 45 for 702 yards, 4 scores, one decide, and a 113.7 ranking that ranked sixth-best amongst certified passers. He additionally added 57 yards on six scrambles.
We began with the passing recreation right here as a result of, a lot because the Browns would possibly wish to grind the clock and switch this recreation right into a slugfest, it is simply not going to occur. The Chiefs offense is simply too explosive, and as we’ll element under, has such a robust matchup benefit in a single specific space, that they are sure to attain loads of factors. Which suggests the Browns are going to wish to discover a technique to sustain. The most certainly manner for them to take action is by creating large performs with their play-action passing, with Mayfield hitting one in all his receivers on a crosser or a deep ball on the perimeter.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will get their alternatives, to make sure. They usually would possibly even do fairly effectively with them. The Kansas Metropolis run protection is in no way imposing, rating thirty first within the league in Soccer Outsiders’ DVOA and twenty fifth in Adjusted Line Yards. However the guidelines of soccer dictate that when you possess the ball, the opposite crew will possess it subsequent, barring a turnover on the following punt or kickoff. You’ll be able to’t truly simply hold the ball out of Mahomes’ palms all recreation. And we have seen groups like, say, the Dolphins, attempt to soar out to an early lead and hope that is sufficient to hold them, however to no avail. The Chiefs can flip a double-digit deficit right into a double-digit lead in a matter of moments. You realize, like they did a number of occasions throughout final yr’s Super Bowl run.
The Browns ought to have the ability to run the ball extra successfully than most Chiefs opponents. To begin with, they’re fairly good at it, with Chubb and Hunt main a unit that completed the season ranked seventh in rush offense DVOA. They’ve a wonderful offensive line, assuming they’ll get everybody wholesome by this weekend. (Joel Bitonio remains to be on the COVID-19 listing, J.C. Tretter and Wyatt Teller have been restricted in follow, and Jack Conklin has been sitting out.) Kevin Stefanski, Alex Van Pelt, and Invoice Callahan do a terrific job designing their run recreation and layering the passing assault on high of it, which aids the success of each sides of the sport plan.
However the Chiefs have been crushed precisely two occasions by a crew that has scored lower than 30 factors over the past three seasons. It’s a must to put crooked numbers up if you wish to compete. And which means rather a lot will experience on Mayfield’s proper shoulder, and his skill to distribute the ball successfully within the brief and intermediate recreation, and to hit focused pictures down the sector.
When the Chiefs have the ball
There’s one participant who I imagine is the largest motive the Chiefs will win this recreation. And it isn’t Patrick Mahomes. It is Travis Kelce. The Browns over the previous few years haven’t valued the linebacker or security positions all that extremely, and it has left them extraordinarily weak to opposing tight ends.
The Browns ranked twenty eighth in DVOA on throws to tight ends this season, per Soccer Outsiders, permitting gamers like Mark Andrews (5-58-2; 5-78-0), Drew Sample and C.J. Uzomah (11-87-1 mixed; 5-52-0 for Pattern within the rematch), Dalton Schultz (4-72-1), Dallas Goedert and Richard Rodgers (7-125-2 mixed), Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt (6-73-1 mixed), and Chris Herndon (4-34-1) to go off for giant video games in opposition to them. Kelce, clearly, is significantly higher than all of these gamers, and poses an unlimited matchup downside for Cleveland’s linebackers and safeties, similar to he does for gamers at these positions on each crew within the league.
Kelce additionally went on a very absurd run down the stretch of the common season, recording at the very least seven catches in eight consecutive video games, in addition to at the very least 68 yards and/or a landing in all of them. His full-season tempo in these eight video games was 130-1830-12. Yeah. He is an issue. Not that there are any solutions for him that exist elsewhere within the league, however the Browns actually, actually do not have them.
Denzel Ward will presumably be again on the sector and that can assist the Browns take care of Tyreek Hill, however A. Ward is coming off an prolonged COVID-19-related absence, and he is indicated he was hit extraordinarily arduous by the virus; and B. the Chiefs range the methods they use Hill usually sufficient that he ought to find yourself shaking any doable shadow protection from Ward fairly just a few occasions, and it solely takes one large play for him to go off in any given recreation.
The best way the Browns take this one from the Chiefs is by completely dominating the road of scrimmage on this facet of the ball. It includes Myles Garrett proving himself so unstoppable that the Chiefs don’t have any selection however to maintain an additional man in for defense, eradicating a receiver from the route. It includes Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi profitable in a short time on the within, forcing Mahomes into scramble mode as quickly as he hits the highest of his drop, and by no means permitting him to throw in rhythm. It includes Garrett and Adrian Clayborn holding include and never letting Mahomes get into improvisation mode. It particularly includes the linebackers and defensive backs guessing appropriately, each time, on what Mahomes goes to do with the ball if and when he does break include to the skin.
Mainly it includes this Browns protection enjoying an ideal recreation. And that simply looks as if too tall an order.
Newest Odds:
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
-10
Prediction: Chiefs 33, Browns 20
