What’s Your Confidence Level? | FOX Sports

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities NFL analyst

The second spherical of the NFL playoffs is a matchup nirvana.

We have future Corridor of Fame quarterbacks, dominant working video games, suffocating defenses and prolific passing assaults.

I like a number of wagers in these 4 NFL divisional playoff video games, and I’ll offer you my confidence in every decide alongside the way in which.

There’s additionally greater than $500,000 on the road this week in the FOX Bet Super 6 contests, with two probabilities to win. Make your picks now for Rams-Packers and Bucs-Saints on the Tremendous 6 app.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
NFC divisional playoff
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, FOX
FOX Guess Line: Packers by 6.5
FOX Guess Over/Below: 46

My decide: Inexperienced Bay -6.5
Confidence meter: 7/10

With this line going below a landing, I’m backing the Packers right here. I imagine persons are overthinking this sport due to the Rams‘ efficiency final week, which I’d argue had extra to do with Seattle’s offense being a large number than the LA’s total efficiency.

For starters, quarterback Jared Goff remains to be therapeutic from thumb surgical procedure and was simply OK in Seattle. Now he’s beginning in chilly climate, one thing he has been terrible at in his profession. When the temperature is below 35 levels (and the pattern measurement is just two video games), Goff has a passer ranking of 34.5 and solely completes 47.2% of his passes. However even in hotter climate, between 36-50 levels, Goff is just at 54.7%. There’s a transparent drop-off when it’s chilly, and now he’s coping with a thumb damage.

Even earlier than the damage, Goff was not good down the stretch, particularly when attempting to throw the ball 10-plus yards. Since Week 10, Goff has the eighth-worst passer ranking when attempting to throw it deep. That may make the Rams passing sport one-dimensional, and I fear about that within the playoffs.

The Rams can run the soccer and can attempt to set up that early, however the Packers protection has continued to enhance in stopping the run. Even when the Rams can run the ball, they haven’t proven the flexibility to attain. Since Week 4, the Rams have scored greater than 27 factors simply twice, together with final weekend after they added a rating on protection. This sport will likely be gained by the Packers protection.

This sport additionally options among the finest particular person matchups of Spherical 2, Packers receiver Davante Adams towards Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams have one of the best cross protection within the NFL, and they’re additionally one of the best at defending the deep ball, each areas have been Ramsay can decelerate Adams. Nonetheless, there’s one spot the place the Packers have the benefit. That’s with play-action passes.

Coming into this season, there was dialogue in regards to the Packers offense having to adapt much more to what coach Matt LeFleur needed. Aaron Rodgers was hesitant about including extra play-action passing into the offense, one thing he didn’t do typically in his previous offense below Mike McCarthy.

From 2016-2019, which does embrace LaFleur’s first season, the Packers used play motion on 19% of Rodgers’ throws, whereas solely finishing 63% of these. This season that play-action cross quantity is as much as 28%, with Rodgers finishing 73.5%. He has thrown 20 TD passes with no interception off the run faux.

That is necessary as a result of whereas the Rams protection is superb in defending dropback passing, they aren’t good towards play motion. LA permits 4.4 yards of separation on play-action passes this season, worst within the NFL. That is the place the Packers offense will feast. Rodgers know this. LaFleur is aware of this.

I am selecting Inexperienced Bay, 31-20.

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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
AFC divisional playoff
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC
FOX Guess Line: Payments by 2.5
FOX Guess Over/Below: 49.5

My decide: Ravens cash line (+120)
Confidence Meter: 6/10

I might take the factors with the Ravens, however I’ll make it easy. I’m wagering on Baltimore profitable this sport straight up. And the reason being easy. The Ravens’ speeding assault will dominate this sport, identical to the Colts did final week.

In Buffalo’s closest video games over the ultimate three months of the season, the widespread thread in all of them was the opponent’s means to hurry the soccer. Within the Payments’ two losses because the center of October, the Chiefs rushed for 245 yards and the Cardinals for 217. Of their two shut victories, the Patriots rushed for 188 yards and the Colts for 163.

These aren’t blowout video games the place the opponent’s speeding numbers are inflated due to a big lead. These are particular sport plans to assault the Payments speeding protection, which ranks twenty third in keeping with superior stats, twenty fifth in yards-per-attempt allowed and thirty first by Professional Soccer Focus. Now they get the Ravens, who’re an distinctive speeding crew.

The Ravens acquired the playoff “curse” off their backs with a wild-card victory over the Titans. They began gradual on offense once more, acquired behind after which completed robust. It was the primary time they’ve proven the flexibility to return from behind in a high-profile sport. It was nice to see, and I feel it makes their crew, and particularly their offense, extra assured.

They dominated on the bottom, one thing that has been their calling card for the final six video games after the Ravens modified their speeding scheme, transferring to a extra spread-out assault. Of their final six video games, all victories, the Ravens averaged 262 yards on the bottom. They’ll goal the Payments run protection by conserving their formations unfold out.

The Payments protection is final in defending the run towards a light-weight field, whereas the Ravens are one of the best within the NFL on this spot. For Baltimore, 19% of its runs with a light-weight field go for greater than 10 yards – and that’s precisely the identical proportion the Payments protection is permitting on this scenario. I feel this matchup is simply brutal for the Payments protection.

However what in regards to the Payments offense? They’re incredible with Josh Allen. I can’t deny that. The Buffalo QB is locked in, however I’m betting on the Ravens protection doing sufficient to gradual him down. The Colts have been in a position to disrupt the Payments’ rhythm with sound protection, one thing the Ravens are identified for. These defenses do it otherwise, with the Colts sitting in zone and the Ravens bringing strain.

Baltimore lead the NFL in blitz fee, which may very well be scary Saturday evening. Allen is incredible towards the blitz, however there’s a particular spot the place I feel the Ravens will win this sport with their protection. When this sport is shut on the finish, I’m undecided I can belief Allen. He’s nonetheless susceptible to the YOLO (you solely dwell as soon as) performs, the place on the finish of video games he tries to do an excessive amount of.

Allen had a possible pricey fumble on the finish of the Colts sport. The Ravens protection, due to their strain schemes, usually tend to pressure Allen into these performs if they will get residence. I do know it’s troublesome to wager on hope, however I do imagine the Ravens protection can do sufficient to decelerate the Payments offense.

My decide: Lamar Jackson speeding yards over 59.5
Confidence meter: 10/10

I made my level about Baltimore’s working sport above, however only for giggles, I’ll throw this quantity on the market. Jackson is averaging 11.83 yards per speeding try when he retains the ball on a zone learn. That’s ridiculous. That is my favourite wager of the weekend.

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Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
AFC divisional playoff
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS
FOX Guess Line: Chiefs by 10
FOX Guess Over/Below: 57

My decide: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs over 32.5
Confidence meter: 9/10

This will likely be a preferred wager this weekend and for good purpose. The Chiefs rating a ton of factors after a bye week, particularly when enjoying a poor protection. Within the six video games when Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are coming off a bye, they’ve scored 40, 31, 40, 51, 31 and 35 factors.

The video games when they “solely” scored 31 factors the place towards a pesky 2018 Colts protection that completed the season eleventh in defensive DVOA after which within the Tremendous Bowl towards an impressive 49ers protection. In any other case, they victimize dangerous defenses, which is the way you’d characterize the Browns unit. And sure, Cleveland would possibly get Denzel Ward again, however having one good nook is nothing for the Chiefs.

The Browns protection is twenty fifth in total DVOA, twenty ninth on deep passes, twenty ninth on third-down passes and twenty eighth on passes to the tight finish. I perceive the urge to level to KC’s battle scoring towards the Falcons as proof the Chiefs could be stopped, however I’d warning you that logic doesn’t work right here. The final sport Mahomes performed was towards the Falcons, and it was the worst sport of his profession. He was not good. And whereas it’s laborious to search out video games the place Mahomes wasn’t good – as a result of his worst video games are nonetheless above league common for his place – he tends to have bounce-back performances following a “down” outing.

For instance, Mahomes performed “poorly” towards the Chargers in a Week 2 win, a sport the place his anticipated factors added (EPA) was simply above league common. The next week in Baltimore, he was above the ninetieth percentile for QB EPA. His play additionally dipped towards the Raiders in a Week 5 loss, however he returned to the ninetieth percentile the next week towards the Payments.

I anticipate Mahomes to be superior Sunday, as he will get again to his roots within the offense. He’ll take what the protection offers him and be methodical about tearing aside the Browns.

My decide: Travis Kelce over 80.5
Confidence meter: 8/10

I like the over for Kelce on this matchup. The Browns, as talked about, are poor masking tight ends. They’ve allowed the fifth-most targets to TEs, the fourth-most catches and eighth-most receving yards.

Additionally, when the Chiefs are coming off a bye, they aim Kelce lots. Within the six video games with Kelce and Mahomes off a bye, the massive tight finish has had greater than 90 yards in 5 of the six, the lone below efficiency was towards the 49ers within the Tremendous Bowl. Now, I get a nasty Browns protection coming to Arrowhead? I like the Kelce over.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
NFC divisional playoff
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, FOX
FOX Guess Line: Saints by 3
FOX Guess Over/Below: 52

My decide: Below 52
Confidence meter: 5/10

Admittedly, I’ve no really feel for this sport. The Saints dominated the Bucs twice this season, profitable the final matchup 38-3 in Tampa in Week 9. However this Bucs crew isn’t the identical, as they’ve improved mightily on offense.

Coach Bruce Arians stopping being boastful and began to adapt his offense to what Tom Brady does finest, together with extra play-action passes and incorporating extra movement into the offense. Together with the playoff victory towards the Washington soccer crew, Brady is averaging 342 yards per sport over their final 5, as opposed to 275 of their first 12 video games.

However this Saints protection isn’t any joke, solely permitting 21.1 factors per sport, and there’s a purpose they performed properly towards Tampa of their earlier video games. They’re relentless at speeding the passer. Whereas I feel Tampa Bay’s offensive line is much better than notion, the Bucs do have holes at left sort out and proper guard if Alex Cappa cannot play.

The Bucs offense additionally has stretches of video games towards good defenses when it nonetheless seems to be disjointed. Marshon Lattimore, the Saints finest cornerback, has performed Mike Evans properly in his profession, solely permitting 9 catches on 20 targets since 2017. He simply has his quantity. For all these causes, I don’t anticipate the Bucs rating a bunch of factors.

For no matter purpose, the Saints offense additionally doesn’t rating within the postseason just like the common season. Perhaps it’s 41-year-old Drew Brees sporting down on the finish of a season or simply going through higher defenses. Regardless of the purpose, the Saints have been held between 20 and 23 factors of their final 4 playoff video games.

Now, they face a Tampa Bay protection that’s constructed to cease them. Since Brees has solely tried 19 deep passes this season, the Bucs protection can deal with the quick passing sport and the way the Saints wish to use Alvin Kamara. The Bucs linebackers run properly, and they’re going to be capable to cowl Kamara out of the backfield, particularly with Lavonte David, who PFF ranks sixth in protection.

The Bucs protection can also be first within the NFL at defending runs between the tackles, a spot the place Kamara excels. The Bucs enable solely 2.9 yards per carry between the tackles, whereas Kamara is averaging greater than six yards at try in that scenario.

All of the numbers level to a low-scoring sport, plus the general public has wager this complete up from 49 to 52. The below simply feels just like the play right here.

There’s greater than $500,000 on the road this week in the FOX Bet Super 6 contests, with two probabilities to win. Make your picks now for Rams-Packers and Bucs-Saints on the Tremendous 6 app.