REDWOOD CITY (KPIX) — Whereas nearly all of the coronavirus disaster continues to unfold in Southern California, the state prolonged the Bay Space’s regional stay-at-home order Saturday. It was an anticipated transfer after ICU availability within the area dropped to three%.
“As finest we are able to inform the reproductive quantity — the common variety of infections, the variety of infections one individual produces — has gone down in latest weeks,” mentioned UC Berkeley epidemiologist Artwork Reingold.
Now, greater than per week into January, the excellent news is that virus transmission within the Bay Space has not but proven a post-holiday spike. The hope is that hospitalizations will quickly decline.
“You already know, all of that would change in a few weeks,” Reingold mentioned.
Medical doctors say one attainable driver of extra instances is already right here and we’ve got a good suggestion about how fast it may unfold.
“We all know that, in England as a result of the B117 was so catchy, it grew to become the dominant pressure in simply three months,” explains Stanford College professor Dr. Malathi Srinivasan. “So I believe between the surges and the truth that it’s already right here in the USA, it will most likely change into the dominant pressure in a pair months.”
The brand new variant may work in opposition to the state simply as we start to deploy the vaccine for added safety. So what are the probabilities of getting Bay Space hospitalization numbers down sufficient to flee the stay-at-home order?
“I might be cautiously optimistic that we would have the ability to obtain that nevertheless it’s actually troublesome from week to week to make predictions,” Reingold mentioned. “I believe anybody who says that she or he can predict that precisely might be fooling themselves.”