Energy transition at the crossroads: New topical issue in Russian Journal of Economics

Titled “Power transition on the crossroads”, the new issue of the Russian Journal of Economics will get a set of profound messages throughout, which may be summarized as: “transition issues, transition goes, but transition just isn’t a easy, unified march in direction of a Inexperienced future”.

Collectively, the seven articles within the difficulty deliver ahead the notion that the world is a various place relating to sources, inhabitants development, human capital, growth and political agendas. Nevertheless, the trail to the Power transition–an integral a part of the United Nations’ Sustainable development goals (SDGs)–is one thing each nation must face within the wake of a number of and unprecedented simultaneous international crises: systemic for well being, financial, environmental, political and humanitarian.

“All papers look into substantive points which have emerged following key, international choices made lately. It is excessive time that we cease persuading one another into taking the Inexperienced path and, as an alternative, flip to the precise issues, prices and obstacles on the way in which,” says the problem’s editor Prof. Leonid Grigoryev, HSE University, Moscow, Russia.

The gathering of articles analyses the outcomes of latest developments within the subject of worldwide vitality, in addition to the mechanisms behind the dramatic adjustments within the enterprise world, public attitudes and authorities insurance policies.

“Gazing into the crystal ball proper now could also be a query of analyzing the casualties from the 2020 recession and the interplay with the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to the logic of pursuits and intentions of all events and actors concerned within the decision-making course of. That is definitely an ‘attention-grabbing time’ — because the oriental curse allegedly says,” feedback Grigoryev.

The first article within the difficulty: “Lengthy-term growth of the worldwide vitality sector below the affect of vitality insurance policies and technological progress” is authored by famend vitality economists on the Energy Research Institute on the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Energy Centre of the Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO: Alexey Makarov, Tatyana Mitrova, Vyatcheslav Kulagin. It addresses the present interval of transformation on the earth vitality sector, outlined by the emergence of a complete vary of cost-effective applied sciences and the formation of recent state priorities that may seriously change the construction of vitality use. The researchers use a fancy forecasting mannequin to foretell how the world vitality markets can be growing within the interval as much as 2040. Amongst their estimations is that oil and coal will cross their peak of consumption earlier than 2040. That won’t solely result in a radical change within the worth surroundings of vitality markets, but additionally to a change of the way in which they’re organized and controlled, in addition to to a revision of enterprise fashions of most vitality corporations.

The second article, authored by Emre Hatipoglu, Saleh Al Muhanna and Brian Efird and titled “Renewables and the way forward for geopolitics: Revisiting essential ideas of worldwide relations from the lens of renewables” covers a various scope of analysis. It presents a overview of the geopolitical, institutional, and technological elements of the event of renewable vitality sources, together with transportation and supply of vitality throughout nationwide borders. With their work, the analysis crew on the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (Saudi Arabia) warn that international points at the moment linked to using non-renewable sources are most definitely sure to stay after the vitality transition. These embody safety, export interdependence, and availability of supply supplies.

The third article is concentrated on the vitality transition within the European Union in step with the evolution of the European Inexperienced Package deal to the New Inexperienced Deal. The paper is authored by Manfred Hafner and Pier Paolo Raimondi, affiliated with Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy), Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe (Italy) and the Science Po Paris School of International Affairs (France). The authors give an analyzed full-fledged account of the rising ambition of the EU to guide the worldwide transition to a climate-neutral world. Of their work, additionally they recommend that the transition will even impression the exterior relations of the EU, for instance with Russia, and recommend that the 2 blocs can protect their vitality relationship in mild of the vitality transition, notably by way of the conversion of pure fuel to hydrogen and storing the ensuing CO2.

The fourth article: “The position of gases within the European vitality transition” by Prof. Jonathan Stern (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom) suggests an attention-grabbing strategy to the position of gases within the international economic system, with a give attention to the EU. He bases his analysis of the subsequent three a long time on the forecast for international demand of gases, which can attain its peak by 2030 in North America, Eurasia and China, after which subsequently diminish by 2050. The demand for liquefied pure fuel (LNG) is predicted to extend, given the comparatively low costs. Nevertheless, afterward, LNG producers will want “revolutionary” applied sciences of decarbonization as effectively.

Within the fifth article by Kirsten Westphal (German Institute for International and Security Affairs): “German-Russian fuel relations in face of the vitality transition”, the creator opinions the topic of vitality transition from a couple of completely different views. Firstly, she discusses it as part of the traditionally examined alliance between Russia and Germany, developed and framed over time. Then, she refers to it as an “vitality diplomacy” case. “This could require a political shift away from securitization to decarbonization, not solely in Germany, however much more so within the EU, and specifically, in Russia,” concludes Westphal.

The sixth article: “Fossil fuels markets within the ‘vitality transition’ period” is authored by Vyatcheslav Kulagin, Dmitry Grushevenko and Nikita Kapustin of the Energy Research Institute on the Russian Academy of Sciences. Of their examine, the researchers examine the long-term impression of the vitality transition and associated processes on the markets of key fossil fuels: oil, pure fuel, and coal. As well as, they talk about necessary instances, reminiscent of conventional versus electrical automobiles, with subsidies additionally factored in. General, the article may be seen as a “technology-friendly” one, whereas concurrently avoiding overoptimistic expectations on effectivity and decarbonization. One could name this strategy to vitality transition as “optimism by way of a rational lens”.

The last article within the particular difficulty: “World vitality trilemma” by Leonid Grigoryev and Dzhanneta Medzhidova (HSE University and Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russia), brings us again to the profound interplay between development, poverty, inequality and the issues regarding vitality transition and local weather change. Primarily, the authors pose a somewhat easy and easy query: if the EU succeeds in its quick decarbonization program by 2030-2050, however the globe finally ends up with one other billion of individuals affected by poverty (together with vitality poverty), would this be a passable consequence, in line with the UN, as outlined within the SDGs? This downside is known as the “World vitality trilemma”, which units poverty and inequality,?development, and?vitality and local weather in opposition to one another. The authors additionally level out that reaching the UN Agenda 2030 can be very tough, given the implications of the 2020 recession. Within the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, monetary sources for growth and vitality transition are anticipated to be closely diverted to inevitable well being care reforms, whereas investments are declining on a worldwide stage. The researchers conclude that the answer lies in coordinated actions geared toward avoiding the potential aggravations of worldwide social issues.

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Discover the complete “Power transition on the crossroads” difficulty within the Russian Journal of Economics” at: https://rujec.org/issue/2951/.

Comply with Russian Journal of Economics on Twitter at @RuJEconomics.